This was a great read, thanks. The section on scarcity is something I've been thinking about a lot as well.
For the longest time, talent and outcomes were roughly linear: you put in a certain amount of work in your CS degree, and even if you're not the best engineer, you still get a job in Big Tech and enjoy a middle-class life. But in a world with autonomous systems (ChatGPT, robots doing surgery, whatever), the relationship becomes more of a step function. Either you're below the threshold (e.g. you're worse than GPT), and you can't add value through your "white-collar" labor -- so the value you can add lies in the things GPT can't do (e.g. the trades, like building HVAC or plumbing). Or you're above the threshold (e.g. you're a Google L10 who can spot GPT's mistakes), and you add value by using these systems to solve thousands of tasks at once. (I'm using CS and GPT as an example, but I think the same relationship applies everywhere.)
And when outcomes are polarized (either you're plumbing, or you're a mentat creating billions in value), wealth and status will follow.
This was a great read- I am a realist by nature, for my day job, I constantly look for things that can go wrong and put lives at risk. I have had similar conversations on this topic of ‘we’ and the vibe that I get that people included ‘we’ is shrinking at an accelerated pace. By no mean condoning what ‘Jokers’ do, but looking back at history, when there is no clear pathway/ meaningful chance for the median population for improving or not declining socio-economy, and dominance of a small class, Jokers start showing up. Spoke with family members in LA county, one was ‘so and so lost their house and everything and no one is/ can help them’, another one ‘there is going to be great opportunities to pick up land at real discount’.
Great article here- thanks for the musings and adding some interpersonal clarity to the mix.
You've probably heard of Neil Howe's fourth turning right? Talks about every 80 years or so in US and Britain before it that we went through cycles and stage 4 is the darkest before the light and we're right in the middle of stage 4 that started with the 2009 financial collapse? Def worth pondering as we seem to be heading toward this waterfall, which is another characteristic of the fourth turning, everyone feels like we're heading toward the waterfall but it hasn't hit yet.. He says best case is not civil war obviously(tho possible?), but rather a war with China or cataclysmic event like plague 2.0 or maybe AI comes to life and threatens us, which will bring the disparate left and right together to make some sweeping changes to the system and hopefully then we can make it to Stage 1 which is usually prosperous but has it's own set of issues to deal with like conformity etc(Think 1950s). Anyway- happy Sunday? Ha!
Great note. People dont talk about human nature enough. If they did, it would be obvious that most of our day to day disagreements exist because of very different fundamental understandings of the world. I think you’re a little generous though. People are mostly civil up to the point it stops being convenient. That’s why acts of real sacrifice are so moving (and rare).
Man, this resonates. I was just saying that I’m generally an optimist, things are better today than they were in the past, and things will probably improve in the future. But there’s a hint of “yeah, but it might all go downhill” too. I talked to my wife’s aunt who grew up in the middle of nowhere in Brazil about how people are so stressed and depressed these days. I suspected that her childhood was physically hard, but they were less anxious because there was no question about what they “should” be doing. You woke up, helped grow food, cooked, cleaned, went to bed. She confirmed it was hard but there was less anxiety. I just can’t help but feel we’re not built for this lifestyle we have today. The loneliness economy Derek Thompson wrote about. We move far from our families chasing “opportunities”, lamenting the lack of support and connections. Maybe it is moving us ahead, but something just feels wrong with it too.
I'm with you on generally being optimistic. I'm not at all someone who generally shakes fist at clouds but trust/cohesion are being chipped away at for profit and I don't know what the antidote is. I mean this essay was basically a lot of lingering thoughts for awhile that the past week really shone a light on but I try not to dwell on it because it's under the umbrella of "things I have no control over".
This was a great read, thanks. The section on scarcity is something I've been thinking about a lot as well.
For the longest time, talent and outcomes were roughly linear: you put in a certain amount of work in your CS degree, and even if you're not the best engineer, you still get a job in Big Tech and enjoy a middle-class life. But in a world with autonomous systems (ChatGPT, robots doing surgery, whatever), the relationship becomes more of a step function. Either you're below the threshold (e.g. you're worse than GPT), and you can't add value through your "white-collar" labor -- so the value you can add lies in the things GPT can't do (e.g. the trades, like building HVAC or plumbing). Or you're above the threshold (e.g. you're a Google L10 who can spot GPT's mistakes), and you add value by using these systems to solve thousands of tasks at once. (I'm using CS and GPT as an example, but I think the same relationship applies everywhere.)
And when outcomes are polarized (either you're plumbing, or you're a mentat creating billions in value), wealth and status will follow.
Phenomenal writing.
Thanks David, very flattering to come from you!
This was a great read- I am a realist by nature, for my day job, I constantly look for things that can go wrong and put lives at risk. I have had similar conversations on this topic of ‘we’ and the vibe that I get that people included ‘we’ is shrinking at an accelerated pace. By no mean condoning what ‘Jokers’ do, but looking back at history, when there is no clear pathway/ meaningful chance for the median population for improving or not declining socio-economy, and dominance of a small class, Jokers start showing up. Spoke with family members in LA county, one was ‘so and so lost their house and everything and no one is/ can help them’, another one ‘there is going to be great opportunities to pick up land at real discount’.
Great article here- thanks for the musings and adding some interpersonal clarity to the mix.
You've probably heard of Neil Howe's fourth turning right? Talks about every 80 years or so in US and Britain before it that we went through cycles and stage 4 is the darkest before the light and we're right in the middle of stage 4 that started with the 2009 financial collapse? Def worth pondering as we seem to be heading toward this waterfall, which is another characteristic of the fourth turning, everyone feels like we're heading toward the waterfall but it hasn't hit yet.. He says best case is not civil war obviously(tho possible?), but rather a war with China or cataclysmic event like plague 2.0 or maybe AI comes to life and threatens us, which will bring the disparate left and right together to make some sweeping changes to the system and hopefully then we can make it to Stage 1 which is usually prosperous but has it's own set of issues to deal with like conformity etc(Think 1950s). Anyway- happy Sunday? Ha!
I've heard of it and seen it referenced a lot.
This was a fantastic read! Thank you, Kris!
Great note. People dont talk about human nature enough. If they did, it would be obvious that most of our day to day disagreements exist because of very different fundamental understandings of the world. I think you’re a little generous though. People are mostly civil up to the point it stops being convenient. That’s why acts of real sacrifice are so moving (and rare).
I deleted a section about the line between civil and not being very contingent but I agree
Man, this resonates. I was just saying that I’m generally an optimist, things are better today than they were in the past, and things will probably improve in the future. But there’s a hint of “yeah, but it might all go downhill” too. I talked to my wife’s aunt who grew up in the middle of nowhere in Brazil about how people are so stressed and depressed these days. I suspected that her childhood was physically hard, but they were less anxious because there was no question about what they “should” be doing. You woke up, helped grow food, cooked, cleaned, went to bed. She confirmed it was hard but there was less anxiety. I just can’t help but feel we’re not built for this lifestyle we have today. The loneliness economy Derek Thompson wrote about. We move far from our families chasing “opportunities”, lamenting the lack of support and connections. Maybe it is moving us ahead, but something just feels wrong with it too.
Bingo.
I'm with you on generally being optimistic. I'm not at all someone who generally shakes fist at clouds but trust/cohesion are being chipped away at for profit and I don't know what the antidote is. I mean this essay was basically a lot of lingering thoughts for awhile that the past week really shone a light on but I try not to dwell on it because it's under the umbrella of "things I have no control over".