The coin flips framing is very clarifying for me. You gave me an "aha" moment...
What has confused some people about me is that a year ago, I was probably 14 of 15 coin flips into becoming what I always wanted: a "Founder/CEO." Then on the last flip, I decided I didn't actually want that.
But maybe it's because I saw another 20+ coin flips from making that reality actually work out (I had seen the my cos last founder from start-to-finish), and not believing like the other side of that was all that important to me, especially given the cost.
Was I not bold enough to take my goal to the end? Or did I just see the big picture? Who knows...
Jensen said something a few months back like if he knew what it would take to get to where he is now he never would have started. Like founders need some incredibly naive optimism so ironically if people thought about these journeys as a chain of flips nobody would do anything.
In practice, given the delta on the GLD option moved little each day and overall (so far) how would you have delta-hedged in practical terms (assuming you were short GLD calls and an equivalent amount of delta at inception...and assuming you had no strong directional view)? For instance, I assume you wouldn't bother delta-hedging each day as long as net delta remained "low"...but what is "low"...?
If you just hedged at the close every day you could just hedge on the model delta. I mean there's lots of deltas you could hedge on but they probably don't vary by more than about 10% (ie .50 to 55)
The coin flips framing is very clarifying for me. You gave me an "aha" moment...
What has confused some people about me is that a year ago, I was probably 14 of 15 coin flips into becoming what I always wanted: a "Founder/CEO." Then on the last flip, I decided I didn't actually want that.
But maybe it's because I saw another 20+ coin flips from making that reality actually work out (I had seen the my cos last founder from start-to-finish), and not believing like the other side of that was all that important to me, especially given the cost.
Was I not bold enough to take my goal to the end? Or did I just see the big picture? Who knows...
Jensen said something a few months back like if he knew what it would take to get to where he is now he never would have started. Like founders need some incredibly naive optimism so ironically if people thought about these journeys as a chain of flips nobody would do anything.
A wise spacefarer once said:
Never tell me the odds
Ha! And meanwhile, here I am doing the writing thing, with probably far worse odds than before!
But I looked at both options, both hard, and decided I’d rather do this hard thing.
Thanks for sharing this Kris
In practice, given the delta on the GLD option moved little each day and overall (so far) how would you have delta-hedged in practical terms (assuming you were short GLD calls and an equivalent amount of delta at inception...and assuming you had no strong directional view)? For instance, I assume you wouldn't bother delta-hedging each day as long as net delta remained "low"...but what is "low"...?
If you just hedged at the close every day you could just hedge on the model delta. I mean there's lots of deltas you could hedge on but they probably don't vary by more than about 10% (ie .50 to 55)