I see this all the time putting on collars. With 4% interest rates the forward $ amount can be significant.
Sometimes you're using the "buy borrow die" strategy, and paying interest. It's not a free lunch if risk free is +4%, but selling collars closer to spot gives a credit to offset borrow cost.
Good points, and I concur. I also have issues with the conventional approach in risk-neutral pricing. Drift = RFR + equity risk premium. The market structural changes over the past 20 years have only exacerbated this.
Similarly with FX carry. UIP says high-yielding currencies should depreciate enough to offset their yield, yet in practice, they often don’t—until a violent unwind forces reversion. Carry is basically short VIX...or long MSTR!
I see this all the time putting on collars. With 4% interest rates the forward $ amount can be significant.
Sometimes you're using the "buy borrow die" strategy, and paying interest. It's not a free lunch if risk free is +4%, but selling collars closer to spot gives a credit to offset borrow cost.
Dividends add another layer...
Good points, and I concur. I also have issues with the conventional approach in risk-neutral pricing. Drift = RFR + equity risk premium. The market structural changes over the past 20 years have only exacerbated this.
Similarly with FX carry. UIP says high-yielding currencies should depreciate enough to offset their yield, yet in practice, they often don’t—until a violent unwind forces reversion. Carry is basically short VIX...or long MSTR!