Friends,
A couple of stimulating short reads:
1) Why Speculate? by Michael Crichton
This was a talk Crichton gave about 20 years ago. Relevant as ever. It’s also the talk where he introduces Gell-Mann Amnesia which is one of my favorite observations:
Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.
That is the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect.I’d point out it does not operate in other arenas of life. In ordinary life, if somebody consistently exaggerates or lies to you, you soon discount
everything they say. In court, there is the legal doctrine of “falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus”, which means “untruthful in one part, untruthful in all.” But when it comes to the media, we believe against evidence that it is probably worth our time to read other parts of the paper. When, in fact, it almost certainly isn’t. The only possible explanation for our behavior is amnesia.
Also quite relevant in light of Michael Lewis's recent book about FTX — a Mt. Rushmore-level example of journalistic Stockholm syndrome. Come to think of it, our relationship with news feels a bit Stockholmy
Aside:
I visited Stockholm this summer.
2 recs if you go:
The Vasa Museum — this would be worth exploring on YouTube even — it’s a fully restored 17th-century warship that was dredged up in the mid-1900s. The story and the museum are exceptional.
Röda Huset — This bar/restaurant is in the running for best cocktails I’ve ever had. Since July 2022, I average a drink every 1-2 months (I have a really weak spot for tiki bars and sake. Don’t know where that puts me on the matrix “highbrow despicable”. IYKYK). My mom had a cocktail there that some magazine called the best in the world. I haven’t tried every cocktail in the world, but it was damn good. In honor of my lovely mother, I refer to this bar as Höda Huset.
2) The Kid Who Was Good At Math (2 min read) by Jarins
This one makes for a nice-quick follow to my little spiel Sunday. It also conjures one of my favorite essays: SSC Gives A Graduation Speech
If interested, I have a public list of my favorite writing from others that I’m always appending to:
Moontower's Favorite Posts By Others
Money Angle
Recent post: BOXX: Access Options Funding Rates in an ETF (Moontower)
Introduction:
Alpha Architect launched the BOXX etf. Depending on your needs, it is a promising alternative to T-bills – but the thing that’s so cool — BOXX is doing the same trades option traders do to manage their cash!
In the summer of 2022, I watched an episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, where professional investors discuss how they personally invest. This episode featured Wes Gray the founder of Alpha Architect.
Show Us Your Portfolio: Wes Gray (YouTube)
How I Invest My Own Money: Robust to Chaos (blog post)
After appearing on the show Wes actually wrote out an in-depth blog post explaining how and why he invests the way he does. Notice the thoughtful appreciation of his constraints and goals, then see how he matches them with a portfolio.
I’ve gotten to know Wes over the years and found his framework deeply resonant with my own thinking. I called him to discuss certain aspects of it in more detail.
While discussing the portfolio, he told me about the upcoming BOXX ETF knowing I’d geek out on the options bit. Not to mention that the ETF is sub-advised by former colleagues from my SIG days.
Now that the ETF has been on the market for 9 months and garnered a critical mass of assets (>$400mm AUM), I feel comfortable explaining how it works.
Easter egg moment from today’s post title:
T-Pain won a season of the Masked Singer. And this is the track list for his On Top Of The Covers album:
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That is so odd...if I read something in a publication that is full or errors I stop reading and move on. Time and attention span are scarce resources especially when you consider the insidious effects misinformation has on our subconscious and System 1.