A Bright Line Between Types Of People
Moontower Munchies #26
Friends,
A few days ago I saw this tweet from
(whose newsletter and video channels are outstanding):
I’ll translate for non-internet natives:
The lack of self-awareness in some people’s conviction about the causes of complicated matters is…impressive.
In this story, "the word “impressive” is playing the role of a rake in the face.
I replied:
1. I think a bright line between people is the meta-awareness of epistemology. Like "how do you know what you know". Everyone is biased but not even being critical about the concept makes you an unreliable witness by default.
2. Trading/physical science/some biz/sports/games are ruthless about testing epistemology thru reality collision and tighter feedback A person can be very successful being full of shit and deluded in certain aspects but not others — in some domains bridges actually need to bear weight.
Causality is a ball of yarn. At best, we are trying to unravel it while wearing mittens. At worst, we just tell people it’s a straight string. Loudly too. As if that certifies simplicity.
People get rewarded for being full of it — some careers incentives train idiots to dig in confidently so it’s something to keep in mind when trying to figure out who has a good filter. More often, I think having poor sense-making apparatus is just, well, normal — not malicious.
With this in mind, I present you with this outstanding essay by Dinesh Raju:
Uncle, You Don’t Make Sense (13 min read)
I’m biased to like this post.
It reinforces one of my pillar beliefs that coherence is the enemy.
It gets a lot of mileage from a memorable 4-quadrant model which I’ve been stanning ever since the New York magazine highbrow/despicable approval matrix that we used in our wedding program.
Warning: there’s a bummer of a conclusion that I think many of you will relate to.
For the finance crowd, I’ll point you to a fledgling substack that I want to encourage:
There are 2 posts so far.
PITBULLS: An interview with Michael Steiner (Link)
Pitbulls is the new branding of StockSlam. this is a neat interview for anyone wondering about the floor days of options trading and what ideas persist. It’s a detailed interview that is as much about teaching as it is about trading.Decisions, Decisions, Decisions: An interview with Todd Simkin (Link)
Over the last 20+ years, Todd has traded equity options, ADRs, currencies and fixed income products. Currently Todd is CEO of SIG Re, a Bermuda-based reinsurance company, and an investor with SIG’s private equity team. What follows is a lightly edited transcript of the interview.
This is a fantastic interview. I know Todd and have relentlessly boosted the interview he did on The Knowledge Project — one of the best interviews I’ve heard that covered everything from trading, his Jeopardy! experience and teaching your kids to make better choices. A lot of non-obvious stuff in it. (My notes on that interview).
In this new interview, Todd continues delivering nuggets. It’s not a long read but if you want a summary to refer back to I compiled a thread.
Finally, many of you have played Pitbulls (ie StockSlam) with me and have experienced the magic of mock trading. Steiner is compiling an email list to notify fans of the upcoming Kickstarter for the physical game.
Stay groovy ☮️
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I was invited to be a part of the Substack Meetings beta. You can book a time to chat. I’m more expensive than a 900 number from 1988 and have a less sexy voice.
Book a meeting with Kris Abdelmessih
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Uncle you don't make sense is a gem. Going to need to revisit this before each large family gathering from now on.