7 long minutes
Programming note:
I’ll be taking some summer family time for the next 2 weeks. The paid posts will still be sent out, but no Wednesdays or Sundays.
Friends,
If you’re local or follow me on X, you might know that Tuesday afternoon went from routine to a shot of adrenaline very quickly. I was picking my eldest son up when I get a phone call from my 14-year-old nephew who was at home with my 10-year-old, his 2 friends, and their grandma:
“There’s a man who jumped the fence in the yard. We are upstairs hiding in the closet. We locked the doors.”
I was sitting in bumper-to-bumper traffic about 4 miles from home.
I tell the whole story here but that evening between cameras and phone logs we put the timeline together.
I left the house at 2:17pm
The kids were playing in the backyard when the man came over the fence at 2:28pm
My nephew called me at 2:29pm.
Once the traffic cleared, I was weaving down the main drag very likely close to 100. Ironically, right past the police station. By the time I was halfway there, the sirens were flying right past me as I just drafted right behind them. We’re going to the same place bruh.
I was running into the house by 2:36 pm. 7 impossibly long minutes.
There were uniformed and plainclothes cops from 3 towns and the county sheriff’s vehicles already on the block, guns drawn.
Makes sense. It was a chase.
Full story:
One wrinkle I didn’t dwell on was how the first group of officers thought the suspect left the area and were just patrolling around the house (with 3 choppers overhead taking a larger radius) in case he returned.
I was being a lookey-loo and examining a bunch of surrounding area around my property. The K9 officer came and spoke to me and it was clear he wasn’t briefed by the other officers. I didn’t want to bias him so I just abstained from telling him the other cops’ theory that the man escaped through a creek area. The K9 officer, operating without any strong prior asked to see the camera footage himself. When I showed it to him he immediately concluded that the man was not fit enough to have gone too far (I shared the footage online briefly, you can hear him panting way too much as he passes the camera).
So this officer decided to start the K9’s trail right next to the house. That dog took an aberrant path but it was clearly being jerked by the pull of the scent and it did not take long to hear it start barking. The megaphone was suddenly blaring right outside our living room window: “You are under arrest. If you turn yourself in, the dog will not bite you”.
The dude did not escape by the creek. He had been hiding right under everyone’s nose about 50 feet from my sideyard for over an hour. The majestic dog took less than 5 minutes to track him down.
I don’t think I consciously thought “guardrail against groupthink” but we felt uneasy about the suggestion that the suspect was already gone (actually it was Yinh who questioned that theory most and expressed that to me before I went snooping around) so when this officer was piecing together the events, it felt natural to just stay quiet to see where this goes.
Been a lot of recent chatter about volatility funds as a strategy and as a business. I’ll host a live webinar today for paid subs to chat vol funds, do some AMA, and chat markets today at 4pm ET. It’ll be recorded as well.
Zoom invitation:
